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"We don't seek empires. We're not imperialistic. We never have been. I
can't imagine why you'd even ask the question." Donald Rumsfeld,
questioned by an al-Jazeera correspondent, April 29, 2003.
"No one can now doubt the word of America," George W. Bush, State of
the Union, January 20, 2004.
January 31, 1:45
yesterday's Guardian, you can read
the following about the results of the Hutton inquiry:
Lord Hutton's decision to absolve the government
from blame for the Iraq weapons dossier placed the spotlight yesterday
on the accuracy of the intelligence provided to ministers.
Far from drawing a line under the controversy about the dossier, the
Hutton report has switched the focus on to the reliability of
intelligence, an issue also gathering steam in the US.
So we have no monopoly on obsfuscation on this side of the Atlantic.
Now, the punditry tell us, the question of government lies is off the
table and we can focus on what's supposedly the real issue: nonexistent
intelligence failures. Remember David Kay's conclusion that the UNSCOM
and IAEA inspections were an extremely powerful source of information
about Iraq's WMD? Just put that together with the fact that inspectors
were deliberately withdrawn at the instigation of the Clinton
administration, which wanted to try a little regime change operation of
its own -- the 1998 Desert Fox campaign (the regime change nature of
that campaign is covered in Kenneth Pollack's book, The
and in Full Spectrum Dominance
as well). And the fact that it was predicted that Desert Fox would mean
the inspections couldn't be resumed. It's hard to characterize a
deliberate policy with predictable, and predicted results, as a
A fascinating expansion on the theme of intelligence failures in USA
lapses corrupt policy of pre-emptive strikes
. As the article
correctly points out, a policy of "pre-emption" (an invalid use of the
term, which historically applies to clear imminent threats, like an
army massing on your borders) does not make sense if you can't depend
on your intelligence services to figure out which countries are a
threat and which aren't. Unfortunately, this doesn't address the actual
point. Even if Saddam had WMD, he posed no threat to the United States.
As even Perle and Frum admit in their execrable book, "An End to Evil,"
no Third World government is going to attack the United States
directly. Given the certainty that any terrorist attack with WMD in the
United States would lead to an instant war on Iraq, Iraq wasn't going
to arm any terrorists to commit such attacks (and, of course, it was
well known that Iraq had no link with al-Qaeda). The real problem with
the "pre-emption doctrine" is that it helps governments that are bent
on war and trying to manufacture excuses to go ahead.
January 30, 8:20
the Exxon Valdez spill back in 1989? 11 million gallons spilled, 1000
miles of coastline damaged? Supposedly it was because of a drunken
skipper, but the real culprit, according to Greg Palast, was a
not to fix
the broken Raycas radar system because of its cost.
Remember how it was a model for corporate litigation because Exxon (now
) paid up so
promptly? Well, it turns out that Exxon didn't pay the $4 billion in
punitive damages it was ordered to pay (they only had 14 years to do
it, after all), and a judge has recently ordered
punies be upped to $4.5 billion, with added interest of $2.25 billion.
Perhaps in another 14 years they'll pay that -- or perhaps not.
In its defense, Exxon says it has "voluntarily" paid $300 million in
damages. This is like a criminal being sentenced to 40 years in prison,
escaping after three, and excusing himself by saying he voluntarily
stayed three years. We should be fair, though. Some turn to crime
because they can't make ends meet. Last year, for example, Exxon Mobil
only raked in $21.5
billion in profit
On the bright side, Exxon Mobil is now pumping
oil from Chad
. Because of concerns over how Third World governments
use oil money, Chad's share of the oil revenues, 12.5% of the total, is
being put in a special escrow account in London, where disbursements
will be carefully audited by the World Bank. Exxon Mobil
's share, a mere
87.5%, doesn't need to be regulated because we know how responsibly it
uses its money.
January 29, 6:00
Floridians were happy to be relieved in their role as the butt of the
nation's jokes when California elected Arnold Schwarzenegger, Americans
can breathe a sigh of relief now. The British have just completed a
formal inquiry, which has concluded that the BBC is responsible for
Blair's lies -- or, to be more careful, the Hutton inquiry exonerates
Blair from any blame over WMD lies and instead castigates the BBC for
reporting those lies. This even though Blair's claim, repeated as
gospel truth, that Iraq could launch its (nonexistent) biological and
chemical weapons in 45 minutes has been repudiated
by a representative of Iyad Allawi (head of the Iraqi National Accord
and member of the Governing Council), who passed the claim on to the
British government in the first place. The original source of the claim
is now in hiding. Gavyn Davies, head of the BBC, resigned within hours
of the report's release, and was followed
shortly thereafter by Director General Greg Dyke. This is a spectacle
even more absurd, and more disturbing, than George Tenet falling on his
last summer because the Bush administration ignored the CIA's analysis.
January 29, 12:45 pm EST.
beat this horse again, but it just refuses to die. The standard story
now is that "intelligence failures" are the key to the great vanishing
WMD mystery. In today's Washington Post, Walter Pincus and Dana
Milbank, reporting on David Kay's conclusions, say
"Still, even hawks who had backed the administration on Iraq said it is
not credible for the administration to deny that there was an
intelligence failure." If only Pincus could go back and re-read the
excellent article he wrote with Barton Gellman back in August, "Depiction
of Threat Outgrew Supporting Evidence
." You don't have to read very
far to figure out that intelligence failures were not exactly the
Take the aluminum tubes as an example. Remember Colin Powell charging
that they were not for artillery but for centrifuges to be used in
uranium isotope separation?
"Maybe Iraqis just manufacture their conventional
weapons to a higher standard than we do, but I don't think so," Powell
said in his speech. He said different batches "seized clandestinely
before they reached Iraq" showed a "progression to higher and higher
levels of specification, including in the latest batch an anodized
coating on extremely smooth inner and outer surfaces. . . . Why would
they continue refining the specification, go to all that trouble for
something that, if it was a rocket, would soon be blown into shrapnel
when it went off?
As Pincus and Gellman uncovered, the administration had been told
unequivocally for the previous year that the tubes were for artillery.
In fact, to use them for centrifuges, they would have to remove the
anodized coating -- so Powell was taking evidence that they were for
artillery and claiming it was evidence for the opposite.
Where's the "intelligence failure" in that -- aside possibly from
Pincus's in ignoring his own work? Of course, I don't want to slam him
-- he and Milbank have done some of the best reporting on the WMD
issues, and I'm sure he realizes the inconsistencies in his reporting.
Clearly, the decision has been made that it is uncouth to keep pointing
out the obvious truth.
January 28, 9:55
commission, which is investigating the 9/11 terror attacks, said
today that it needs more time. It's set to terminate on May 27, but,
partly because of systematic obstructionism
from the Bush administration, it says it won't be able to finish its
work by then and is asking for an extension until July. The Bush
administration says no and House Speaker Dennis Hastert's office has
said he will oppose any extension. Shouldn't the administration at
least pretend to concern about a full investigation into the 9/11
January 28, 11:00
in the Guardian, titled "Abuses force America to end aid to
Uzbekistan." Uzbekistan is, of course, part of the new American empire
in Central Asia, and recipient of roughly $100 million annually in U.S.
aid -- far more than it received before 9/11. The State Department has,
however, refused to certify Uzbekistan as supporting human rights,
supposedly because of minor problems like its practice of occasionally
boiling Islamist prisoners in oil. When was the last time you heard of
the the State Department mucking up something of strategic interest to
the United States over the question of human rights? Congress has
occasionally done this under huge pressure from grassroots activists,
with Guatemala in 1977 and Indonesia in the 1990's (credit here goes
largely to the East Timor Action Network
but to have it done by the executive branch?
Of course, as the Guardian article points out, the State Department was
well aware of human rights abuses in 2002, when it certified
Uzbekistan. So what's going on here? It certainly looks like another
move in the interminable drama of State vs. Defense, realist vs.
neocon, rather than a sudden access of concern for human rights. We
should keep in mind, though, that although there are genuine
differences of opinion about how to secure "U.S. strategic interests,"
both departments are working for the same longstanding policies of
imperial control and domination. The administration has clearly been
successful in using them as part of a "good cop, bad cop" game; the
good cop is Baker going abroad to secure loan forgiveness for Iraq,
Rice and Powell negotiating with Libya, etc.; the bad cop is Cheney,
Rumsfeld and "new Europe," sidestepping the Security Council over Iraq,
and so on. Termination of aid to Uzbekistan is likely a reasonable
sacrifice right at the moment, when the country's immediate
significance is not great and the empire is stretched thin anyway.
January 27, 10:00 pm EST.
write, the results of the New Hampshire primary are a foregone
conclusion -- Kerry beats Dean by about a dozen points, and he beats
Edwards and Clark by about the same amount. Dean is definitely
recovering, somewhat, from his Iowa problems and Kerry is definitely
the frontrunner. The big dichotomy between Democratic voters is between
those who vote based on the issues -- Dean is favored overy Kerry --
and those who vote on "electability" -- Kerry beats Dean by something
like 3 to 1 in New Hampshire on this one. The results of Iowa and New
Hampshire will likely reinforce this perception. One thing people are
not reckoning with, however -- the primaries are a competition between
Democrats, while the election will be run against George W. Bush, or,
more accurately, Karl Rove. Anyone who weasels as much as Kerry on the
question of the war will be eaten alive once Bush actually starts
Kerry's victory speech made it clear what he's going to campaign on
when it comes to foreign policy. He talked about the help of veterans,
his "band of brothers." He talked about their experience "fighting for
our country." Back when Kerry protested the Vietnam War he was pretty
clear on the fact that he and his fellow soldiers had been fooled and
lied to and that destroying Vietnam was not fighting for his country.
It's still hard for me to believe that this man once made perhaps the
ever delivered to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Had he
learned the lesssons of 2000 and 2002, he would have put that speech
right at the top of his website. If Dean has any sense, he'll realize
that the way to come back is to emphasize David Kay and the fact that
the Bush administration lied repeatedly -- so far, he's saying
things like, "The White House has not been candid."
January 27, 7:20
were the Bush administration, battling a perpetual international image
problem, who would you send to the World Economic Forum at Davos and
then on a European goodwill tour? Which of your fund of internationally
experienced, cosmopolitan, sophisticated, reasonable-seeming people
would you choose? Keep in mind that the mood in Davos last year was
of U.S. policies. Naturally, you would pick ... John Ashcroft ... and
then follow him up with Dick Cheney. According to a new bio of Tony
Blair, Cheney continually derided
the British for their "multilateralism," saying to a British official
in the summer of 2002, "Once we have victory in Baghdad, all the
critics will look like fools." At the time, of course, the
administration firmly denied that it was bent on war with Iraq. He's
also continued to tell the same lies about WMD and al-Qaeda since the
11:50 pm EST.
Campaigning in New Hampshire today, Howard Dean
Foreign policy expertise depends on patience and
judgment," Dean said in Nashua. "I question Senator Kerry's judgment
when he voted 'no' in 1991 and 'yes' [in 2002]. I think it should be
the other way around.
Finally, someone mentions the obvious fact. The arguments that the
Democratic candidates are using against Gulf War 2 -- alienated our
allies, no U.N. resolution, didn't share the cost, bogged us down in
occupation, lied about WMD, and so on -- didn't apply for Gulf War 1.
And yet, far more Democrats voted against the first one (47 Senators
voted against the resolution on Gulf War 1 and 183 Representatives, as
opposed to 23 and 133 for Gulf War 2). Dean is no paragon of
intellectual consistency, and clearly accepted the bogus arguments
about WMD, but he does seem more logical than the other candidates. His
line about the guys in pickup trucks with Confederate flags is actually
a pretty obvious point -- as long as the Democrats continue to allow
the Republicans to use racism to get poor whites to vote for them, the
Democrats are always going to have the deck stacked against them. But
anyway, to criticize the Gulf War or to criticize this one in a
meaningful way, deeper analysis of U.S. motives is necessary, as is
recourse to ethical arguments, something that is just not happening
here. Even Dennis Kucinich is not using his time on TV to criticize the
occupation for what's being done to Iraqis.
11:17 am EST.
finished David Frum and Richard Perle's book, An End to Evil
Will write more on it later, but a few thoughts. It's not quite as full
of lies as I would have thought, because most of it is so vacuous --
they don't number the footnotes, my guess is, because they don't want
to make it obvious how few there are and how little of any kind of
scholarship, even jaundiced neoconservative scholarship, went into
making the book. Despite the vacuity, though, there are some doozies:
On page 3, they tell us that U.S. intervention saved millions of
Afghans from famine. That's an interesting reconstruction of history.
In fact, within days of 9/11, the United States had demanded from
Pakistan the "elimination of truck convoys that provide much of the
food and other supplies to Afghanistan's civilian population"
("Pakistan Antiterror Support Avoids Vow of Military Aid," John Burns,
NYT, September 16, 2001). The risk of famine was dramatically increased
when aid shipments were halted in September due to U.S. demands and
then could not resume until late November because of U.S. bombing. The
Guardian is one of the few organizations that attempted to estimate the
death toll due to cessation of aid -- they came up with a figure of
(not an upper bound -- the upper estimate was 50,000).
Perle and Frum are also at pains to explain that the deaths due to the
sanctions are entirely Saddam's fault, with no blame shared by the U.S.
government, so on p. 21, they say, "On the very day that Iraq was
liberated, $13 billion in oil-for-food funds sat unexpended in the
program’s escrow account in Paris." When I saw this, it seemed very
wrong, so I checked out the U.N. Office of the Iraq Program's April
5-11, 2003, weekly
. It says that there were $3.2 billion in funds unallocated
and $10.3 billion of goods in the "production and delivery pipeline."
Add them together and you get $13.5 billion, but, of course, the
primary reason for delays in getting goods into Iraq was U.S. obstructionism
the so-called 661 Committee. So was the number $3.2 billion instead of
$13 billion? Maybe just a typo? Here's the kicker: at the same time
that $3.2 billion was unallocated, $6 billion worth of contracts were
approved but unfunded, so for Frum and Perle's purposes the correct
figure is not $13 billion but rather negative $2.8 billion.
11:50 pm EST.
Kay said today on NPR that he doesn't think any WMD will be found in
Iraq and that what happened was a "corrupted process" where Iraqi
scientists tricked Saddam into thinking he was funding research into
WMD and then used the money for other things. He also says that Iraq's
nuclear program, so frequently touted by Dick Cheney, had not gotten
along nearly as far as Iran's and Libya's, which, of course, have not
gotten very far. He also admitted
the obvious fact that UNSCOM on-the-ground inspections were very
effective and the best way of gaining information on WMD -- so that the
U.S. government's constant claims to have extra information were
clearly lies. But the most interesting thing:
Asked whether President Bush owed the nation an
explanation for the gap between his warnings and Kay's findings, Kay
said: "I actually think the intelligence community owes the president,
rather than the president owing the American people." (Kay
Asks Why U.S. Thought Iraq Had WMD, AP)
Since it was on radio, we may never know whether he said this with a
January 24, 7:19
Kay, head of the Iraq Survey Group, which was the Bush administration's
replacement for U.N. and IAEA weapons inspectors, has now resigned, and
concluded that Iraq had no stockpiles of chemical and biological
weapons before the war, and that they had probably all been eliminated
in the early 90's. The New York Times article
on it also quotes Jane Harman, senior Democrat on the House
Intelligence Committee, saying "It is increasingly clear that there has
been a massive intelligence failure."
How long are the Democrats going to continue with nonsense like this?
Even before the massive revelations of the summer, it was clear that
what was going on was not "intelligence failures" but massive
deception. To take one example, Hussein Kamel, Saddam's son-in-law,
defected to Jordan in 1995 and revealed a great deal about Iraq's
weapons programs to U.N. inspectors. One of his revelations led to the
seizure of huge numbers of documents. The Bush administration played up
his case a lot, saying that inspections weren't enough, you need
defectors. On March 3, 2003, however, Newsweek revealed that Hussein
Kamel had also told inspectors that all weapons of mass destruction
were destroyed and that this information had been covered up with the
cooperation of UNSCOM, the Clinton administation, and the Bush
administration (you can find the full text of that interview here
Kamel was a liar or not, to use part of his testimony and cover up the
rest is a pretty clear sign of dishonesty. Or how about the infamous
"16 words" in the 2002 State of the Union speech? We know Iraq is
seeking uranium from Africa? The continent? We can say that it's
seeking uranium from one of over 50 countries, but we can't tell you
which one? And, of course, these are just the tip of a mountainous
iceberg of lies.
Actually, it's even worse. The Bush administration went to war on Iraq
because they knew there was no significant WMD capability -- and, of
course, made sure of that with the resumption of weapons inspections in
November 2002. They weren't going to risk massive American casualties.
They also had to know that Iraq had no links with al-Qaeda and wouldn't
cooperate with it for any reason. Otherwise, in all the months of
buildup, Iraq could not only have transferred WMD to al-Qaeda, it could
have transferred huge amounts of money -- remember the story
about Saddam pulling out about $1 billion in cash from Iraq's Central
Bank three hours before the invasion started? What could al-Qaeda do
with an extra billion or two (we know from all sources that money is a
perpetual problem for al-Qaeda operations)?
Simple rule of thumb: Listen to what Dick Cheney says
and believe the opposite.
January 23, 1:35
the presses from the Washington Post (undoubtedly the major newspaper
doing the best reporting on the occupation) -- "Immunity
Pact for American Troops in Iraq Still Unsettled
." Now, it is true
that we already knew that the so-called "transfer of sovereignty"
planned for the end of June 2004 was a sham. As Paul Bremer said
when the plan was first put out in November, "Our presence here will
change from an occupation to an invited presence." In other words,
"transferring sovereignty" is about creating a government that will
approve of the occupation and make it permanent -- which is not quite
the same as creating a government that is independent.
But this adds insult to injury. Iraqi "independence" will involve a
long-term presence of over 100,000 American soldiers who enjoy complete
impunity and are not subject to prosecution by Iraqi authorities for
crimes committed in Iraq. When the Western colonial powers, Britain,
the United States, Germany, and France, imposed such a condition on
China in the mid-19th century, it was called "extraterritoriality," and
it was one of the most hated signs of colonial domination. In the
dealings of the Ottoman Empire with Europe, similar concessions were
part of the "Capitulations," which accumulated over several centuries.
Abrogation of the Capitulations was one of the main reasons the
Ottomans gave for entering World War 1 on the side of the Central
Note that this is a step beyond the phenomenal arrogance shown by U.S.
demands that the strictures of the International Criminal Court not
apply to Americans -- a demand that has manifested in dozens of
bilateral immunity treaties. That says American soldiers are not
subject to international law; this immunity pact, when agreed upon,
will say that American soldiers are not subject to the law of the land
This is why Iraqis are wont to say that the Americans are merely
"transferring power from the right pocket to the left pocket." It's
hard to find an Iraqi on the streets of Baghdad who won't tell you that
this particular transition plan is more about elections in the United
States than those in Iraq. It's also hard to find one who doesn't know
that, for all its talk about commitment to the rule of law, this
administration clearly believes that the rule of law is only for other
January 21, 11:00
from Iraq a week ago. I'll be writing more about the trip shortly.
Recovered from jetlag just in time for the glorious pageantry of the
State of the Union address. Did anyone else notice the insulting way
that Adnan Pachachi was displayed as evidence of the great new
partnership between Iraq and the United States? Much as Hamid Karzai
was in the 2002 SOU address. Reminds me of Columbus bringing Native
Americans to the court of Ferdinand and Isabella. You can't see the
chains in this modern re-enactment, but they're still there, no doubt
Anyway, the difference between the reality of Iraq and the
mythmongering of the SOU was a bit much to take. You can see my
detailed comparison of Bush's claims with the truth here
from Baghdad -- Hospital Closings and U.S. War Crimes "Report
from Baghdad -- Winning Hearts and Minds"Report
from Fallujah -- Destroying a Town in Order to "Save" it"Report
from Baghdad -- Opening the Gates of Hell"War
on Terrorism" Makes Us All Less Safe Bush
-- Is the Tide Turning?Perle and
vs. Dean SOU
2004: Myth and